ALL THE METEOROLOGISTS ARE VERY CAUTIOUSLY TREADING TO DERIVE THE RATHER INCONSISTENT OUTPUT OF SEVERAL FORECASTING MODELS, MORE SO FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.
THE CHART PATTERNS PREDICT SOME RAIN FALL TO OCCUR IN VIDARBHA (ESPECIALLY IN NAGPUR) ON SAT. THE 16th JUNE 2012 AND SUN THE 17th JUNE.
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE DAY(SAT EVE. TILL SUN EVE.) MAY NOT EXCEED 10-12 mms BUT THE NAGPURIANS WILL BE GREETED BY MORNING RAINS WHEN THEY WAKE UP ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE ON 18th JUNE 2012 AND 19th JUNE 2012 WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM.
IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE THE ONSET OF MONSOON AT NAGPUR, IT CAN BE DONE ON 17th , EVEN THOUGH ALL THE PARAMETERS (CRITERIA) MAY NOT BE SATISFIED FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.
THE WEEK TILL 21st JUNE WILL BE CLOUDY AND THERE AFTER TILL 25th JUNE 2012 ABSOLUTELY DRY WITH SCORCHING SUN AND HUMIDITY IN THE RANGE OF 40-60% MAKING THE FEEL-VERY-UNCOFRTABLE.
THE SOWING SEASONS ARE CHANGING AND THEREFORE THE FARMERS IN VIDARBHA SHOULD NOT MAKE A HURRY TO SOW THEIR SEEDS TILL THE SECOND/THIRD WEEK OF JULY 2012.
PRESENTLY THERE IS AN INDICATION OF EASTERLIES AT 200hpa BUT NOT STRONG TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE. THE POSITION MIGHT IMPROVE BY JUNE END OR JULY FIRST WEEK.
Milind Phadke
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