THE MONSOON IS EXPECTED AROUND 20th JUNE (AT NAGPUR) AND THE DELAY IN ONSET OVER KERALA IS NOT A NEWS; NOW.
THE VARIABILITY IN THE OLR ANOMALIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND SINCE APRIL 2012 THE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES (IN THE ENSO3.4 SST) INDICATES UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE OCEAN NINO INDEX WHICH IS A MEASUREMENT WHICH HELPS IN ASSESSING AND MONITORING ENSO CONDITIONS HOWEVER DOES NOT INDICATE A FULL FLEDGED ELNINO CONDITION (FIVE CONSECUTIVE OVERLAPPING OF THREE MONTHS SEASON IS NECESSARY).
THE ENSO PLAYS A DOMINANT ROLE IN CLIMATE AND MONSOON VARIABILITY (ATLEAST IN THE LAST ABOUT FOUR DECADES).
ISOLATED RAINS COUPLED WITH THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN MAHARASHTRA IN THE MUMBAI-PUNE AREA (THE GOA COASTAL AREA WILL RECEIVE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD) ON 05th JUNE 2012.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE 2012 AND IN SOME PARTS OF VID DURING THE PERIOD 02ND TO 04TH JUNE WITH FEW DROPS OF RAIN HERE AND THERE WITH POSSIBILITY OF COUPLED THUNDERSTORM.
THE MAX TEMPS AT NAGPUR WILL SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 3-4 Deg Cel ON 02nd JUNE AND THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THEREAFTER WHICH IS ROUTINE.